Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datamatch statistics
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: USM Alger won 1-3.
Story
Mamelodi Sundowns vs USM Alger: the story of the match
Neither side took control in the first 15 minutes. 4' — USM Alger took the lead: 0-1. 26' — Mamelodi Sundowns equalised: 1-1. 36' — USM Alger went back in front: 1-2. Half time: 1-2.
55' — USM Alger extended the lead: 1-3. After 46' the momentum swung to Mamelodi Sundowns. USM Alger won 1-3.
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
Mamelodi SundownsUSM Alger
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min6331
Last 15 min5519
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Mamelodi Sundowns win in 60% of the simulated matches, 25% end level and USM Alger win 15%. Average goals 2.3; the most likely score is 1-0 (17%); both teams score in 39%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
A 3-1 away win for USM Alger against Mamelodi Sundowns in the CAF Super Cup. The half-time score was 1-2.
The story of the match
USM Alger took the lead on 4 minutes. Mamelodi Sundowns drew level at 1-1 on 26 minutes. USM Alger went 2-1 up on 36 minutes. USM Alger led 2-1 at the break.
Mamelodi Sundowns took over after the 46th minute, pinning USM Alger back. USM Alger extended their lead to 3-1 on 55 minutes. Mamelodi Sundowns had a goal ruled out in the 84th minute.
Match statistics
On target it was 8-4, from 12 and 4 attempts respectively. Mamelodi Sundowns won 6 corners, USM Alger 3. Mamelodi Sundowns produced 70 dangerous attacks to USM Alger's 25.
The bigger picture
USM Alger ended Mamelodi Sundowns' unbeaten run of 11 matches. USM Alger extend their unbeaten run to 5 matches.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
