LR Vicenza Virtus vs US Cremonese: the story of the match
38' — US Cremonese took the lead: 0-1. Federico Bonazzoli scored it. 41' — LR Vicenza Virtus equalised: 1-1. Silvio Merkaj scored it. Half time: 1-1.
51' — US Cremonese went back in front: 1-2. Giuseppe Pezzella scored it. 80' — US Cremonese extended the lead: 1-3. Federico Bonazzoli scored from the penalty spot. 90' — US Cremonese extended the lead: 1-4. David Stuckler scored it. It came in the closing minutes. US Cremonese won 1-4. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
LR Vicenza VirtusDrawUS Cremonese
Pre-match model estimate: LR Vicenza Virtus 28%, draw 26%, US Cremonese 46%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): LR Vicenza Virtus win in 28% of the simulated matches, 26% end level and US Cremonese win 46%. Average goals 2.6; the most likely score is 1-1 (13%); both teams score in 53%. About 9.4 corners on average. About 4.1 yellow cards on average; a red card in 17%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
US Cremonese took the lead on 38 minutes thanks to Federico Bonazzoli. LR Vicenza Virtus drew level at 1-1 on 41 minutes thanks to Silvio Merkaj. Half-time: 1-1 between LR Vicenza Virtus and US Cremonese.
US Cremonese went 2-1 up on 51 minutes thanks to Giuseppe Pezzella. Federico Bonazzoli made it 3-1 for US Cremonese after 80 minutes. Late on, in the 90th minute, US Cremonese extended their lead to 4-1 through David Stuckler.
The statistics
LR Vicenza Virtus won 4 corners, US Cremonese 3.
The bigger picture
LR Vicenza Virtus drop from 17th to 19th on 9 points. The result lifts US Cremonese to 9th with 15 points, up from 11th. LR Vicenza Virtus have now scored in 5 consecutive matches. It is US Cremonese's first win against LR Vicenza Virtus since 2021.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
