10' — AC Oulu took the lead: 0-1. C. Triana scored it. 26' — AC Oulu extended the lead: 0-2. An own goal by M. Bogićević. Half time: 0-2.
76' — HJK Helsinki pulled one back: 1-2. M. Borchers scored it. 77' — HJK Helsinki equalised: 2-2. M. Borchers scored it. 80' — M. Ojala of AC Oulu was sent off. 85' — AC Oulu went back in front: 2-3. R. Karjalainen scored it. It came in the closing minutes. 86' — HJK Helsinki equalised: 3-3. N. Alho scored it. It came in the closing minutes. The match ended 3-3. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
HJK HelsinkiDrawAC Oulu
Pre-match model estimate: HJK Helsinki 80%, draw 13%, AC Oulu 7%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): HJK Helsinki win in 80% of the simulated matches, 13% end level and AC Oulu win 7%. Average goals 3.7; the most likely score is 2-0 (10%); both teams score in 52%. About 10.0 corners on average. About 3.6 yellow cards on average; a red card in 18%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
It finished 3-3 between HJK Helsinki and AC Oulu at Bolt Arena. HJK Helsinki owed a lot to M. Borchers, who struck twice. It was 0-2 at half-time.
Key moments
C. Triana opened the scoring for AC Oulu after 10 minutes, set up by N. Jokelainen. AC Oulu extended their lead to 2-0 in the 26th minute: an own goal from M. Bogićević. AC Oulu led 2-0 at the break.
The officials disallowed a HJK Helsinki goal on 73 minutes. Just 3 minutes later (76') HJK Helsinki pulled one back to make it 1-2, M. Borchers on target. HJK Helsinki drew level at 2-2 in the 77th minute: M. Borchers, set up by T. Pukki. AC Oulu had a player sent off on 80 minutes: M. Ojala. AC Oulu went 3-2 up in the 85th minute: R. Karjalainen.
HJK Helsinki drew level at 3-3 in the 86th minute: N. Alho, set up by T. Pukki.
What the numbers say
Corners finished 13-3.
The bigger picture
HJK Helsinki move on to 38 points. The result takes AC Oulu to 35 points. HJK Helsinki are now unbeaten in 10 matches. AC Oulu extend their unbeaten run to 5 matches. Across 8 meetings in our records: 5 wins for HJK Helsinki, 2 wins for AC Oulu and 1 draw.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
