Crewe Alexandra vs AFC Wimbledon: the story of the match
11' — Crewe Alexandra took the lead: 1-0. Charlie McNeill scored it. Half time: 1-0.
62' — Crewe Alexandra extended the lead: 2-0. Conor Thomas scored it. 82' — AFC Wimbledon pulled one back: 2-1. Andy Yiadom scored it. Crewe Alexandra won 2-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Crewe AlexandraDrawAFC Wimbledon
Pre-match model estimate: Crewe Alexandra 43%, draw 26%, AFC Wimbledon 31%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Crewe Alexandra win in 43% of the simulated matches, 26% end level and AFC Wimbledon win 31%. Average goals 2.6; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 51%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
AFC Wimbledon went down 2-1 to Crewe Alexandra in the FA Cup. The half-time score was 1-0. 3,015 spectators were at Mornflake Stadium.
How the match unfolded
Crewe Alexandra took the lead on 11 minutes thanks to Charlie McNeill. AFC Wimbledon had a goal ruled out in the 45th minute. Half-time: 1-0, Crewe Alexandra in front.
Crewe Alexandra extended their lead to 2-0 in the 62nd minute: Conor Thomas. AFC Wimbledon pulled one back to make it 2-1 in the 82nd minute: Andy Yiadom.
The statistics
The shot count read 3-7, 2-4 on target. Crewe Alexandra won 3 corners, AFC Wimbledon 10. AFC Wimbledon produced 117 dangerous attacks to Crewe Alexandra's 78.
What it means
Crewe Alexandra end a run of 3 matches without a win. AFC Wimbledon have now gone 10 matches without a win. It is Crewe Alexandra's first win against AFC Wimbledon since 2022.
Coming up
Crewe Alexandra's next match is at home against Wigan Athletic on 10 November. AFC Wimbledon host Blackpool next, on 14 November.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
