Burgos CF vs Celta de Vigo B: the story of the match
12' — Celta de Vigo B took the lead: 0-1. Alvaro Marin scored it. Half time: 0-1.
68' — Burgos CF equalised: 1-1. Curro scored it. 86' — Burgos CF completed the turnaround: 2-1. Alex Fores scored it. It came in the closing minutes. Burgos CF won 2-1. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Burgos CFDrawCelta de Vigo B
Pre-match model estimate: Burgos CF 58%, draw 23%, Celta de Vigo B 19%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Burgos CF win in 58% of the simulated matches, 23% end level and Celta de Vigo B win 19%. Average goals 2.6; the most likely score is 1-0 (13%); both teams score in 47%. About 9.8 corners on average. About 4.9 yellow cards on average; a red card in 22%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Celta de Vigo B took the lead in the 12th minute: Alvaro Marin. It was Burgos CF 0-1 Celta de Vigo B at half-time.
Curro equalised for Burgos CF at 1-1 after 68 minutes. Alex Fores turned the game around for Burgos CF at 2-1 after 86 minutes.
Match statistics
Corners finished 10-1.
What it means
Burgos CF climb from 8th to 3rd on 24 points. Celta de Vigo B remain 16th, now with 13 points. Burgos CF are now unbeaten in 5 matches. The wait for a win goes on for Celta de Vigo B: 4 matches now. Burgos CF beat Celta de Vigo B for the first time since 2021.
Next fixtures
Burgos CF visit Leganes next, on 13 November in LaLiga 2. Next up for Celta de Vigo B: away at Albacete Balompie on Monday 16 November.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
LaLiga 2
