SerbiaFootballSeason 26/27Super Liga season simulation
Model estimate FK Crvena Zvezda — 100% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Promotion | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Crvena Zvezda | 43 | 69.2 | 100% | 100% | 0% |
| FK Vojvodina | 32 | 52.3 | <1% | 100% | <1% |
| FK Zeleznicar Pancevo | 29 | 48.8 | <1% | 100% | <1% |
| FK Radnicki 1923 | 23 | 39.9 | 0% | 82% | 18% |
| FK IMT Novi Beograd | 23 | 37.4 | 0% | 64% | 36% |
| FK Radnik Surdulica | 23 | 37 | 0% | 55% | 45% |
| FK Cukaricki | 22 | 36.5 | 0% | 50% | 50% |
| FK Partizan Belgrade | 17 | 33.1 | 0% | 24% | 76% |
| FK Novi Pazar | 19 | 33.1 | 0% | 21% | 79% |
| FK Mladost Lucani | 18 | 28.8 | 0% | 3% | 97% |
| FK Macva Sabac | 13 | 25.4 | 0% | 1% | 99% |
| OFK Beograd | 11 | 24.2 | 0% | <1% | 100% |
| FK Radnicki Nis | 8 | 20 | 0% | <1% | 100% |
| FK Zemun | 7 | 15.5 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
TitlePromotionRelegationxPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Crvena Zvezda | 100 | |||||||||||||
| FK Vojvodina | 72 | 26 | 2 | |||||||||||
| FK Zeleznicar Pancevo | 27 | 62 | 8 | 2 | ||||||||||
| FK Radnicki 1923 | 6 | 37 | 23 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||||||
| FK IMT Novi Beograd | 2 | 18 | 22 | 21 | 16 | 11 | 6 | 2 | ||||||
| FK Radnik Surdulica | 2 | 15 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 14 | 8 | 3 | ||||||
| FK Cukaricki | 2 | 12 | 17 | 20 | 19 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||||
| FK Partizan Belgrade | 4 | 8 | 12 | 16 | 20 | 21 | 13 | 5 | 1 | |||||
| FK Novi Pazar | 3 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 21 | 23 | 13 | 5 | 1 | |||||
| FK Mladost Lucani | 2 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 32 | 23 | 11 | 3 | ||||||
| FK Macva Sabac | 1 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 30 | 28 | 12 | 2 | ||||||
| OFK Beograd | 2 | 5 | 13 | 26 | 34 | 17 | 3 | |||||||
| FK Radnicki Nis | 3 | 8 | 20 | 50 | 17 | |||||||||
| FK Zemun | 4 | 17 | 78 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 78 remaining matches · data version z6uo71. 78 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.