AustriaFootballSeason 26/27Bundesliga season simulation
Model estimate SK Rapid Wien — 60% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Next round | Relegation play-off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK Rapid Wien | 33 | 51.5 | 60% | 100% | 0% |
| Red Bull Salzburg | 30 | 49.9 | 37% | 100% | 0% |
| LASK Linz | 25 | 43.8 | 3% | 100% | <1% |
| TSV Hartberg | 20 | 35.1 | <1% | 97% | 3% |
| SK Sturm Graz | 19 | 34.3 | <1% | 96% | 4% |
| SV Ried | 16 | 29.2 | 0% | 68% | 32% |
| WSG Tirol | 13 | 25 | 0% | 22% | 78% |
| SCR Altach | 10 | 22.4 | 0% | 8% | 92% |
| FK Austria Wien | 8 | 22 | 0% | 7% | 93% |
| SC Austria Lustenau | 11 | 18.8 | 0% | 1% | 99% |
| Grazer AK | 10 | 18.4 | 0% | 1% | 99% |
| RZ Pellets WAC | 6 | 16.4 | 0% | <1% | 100% |
TitleNext roundRelegation play-offxPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK Rapid Wien | 60 | 33 | 7 | |||||||||
| Red Bull Salzburg | 37 | 52 | 11 | |||||||||
| LASK Linz | 3 | 15 | 72 | 8 | 2 | |||||||
| TSV Hartberg | 5 | 44 | 35 | 12 | 2 | |||||||
| SK Sturm Graz | 5 | 39 | 39 | 14 | 3 | |||||||
| SV Ried | 7 | 18 | 43 | 19 | 8 | 3 | ||||||
| WSG Tirol | 4 | 17 | 33 | 23 | 13 | 6 | 3 | |||||
| SCR Altach | 1 | 7 | 18 | 24 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 4 | ||||
| FK Austria Wien | 6 | 15 | 24 | 24 | 16 | 10 | 5 | |||||
| SC Austria Lustenau | 4 | 9 | 15 | 24 | 26 | 21 | ||||||
| Grazer AK | 3 | 7 | 14 | 22 | 28 | 25 | ||||||
| RZ Pellets WAC | 1 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 24 | 44 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 60 remaining matches · data version 1mp97e. 60 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.